Three big unknowns ahead of Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs
#image_title

Three big unknowns ahead of Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs


Share this post

Donald Trump says tariffs are coming. That message from the US president has been consistent.

But what tariffs and when? The announcements of the new import taxes have come so thick and fast since he took office that it can be hard to keep track.

Trump has already raised duties on Chinese imports, steel, aluminium and some goods from Canada and Mexico. Higher levies on cars are due to go into effect this week.

We're now waiting for Trump to unveil the details of his plan for a wider set of tariffs, which his team has spent the last few weeks developing.

The White House is calling it "Liberation Day". So what might we learn on Wednesday?

How big are the tariffs?

The White House has not said how big the tariffs will be, although various possible rates have been floated by analysts.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump backed a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports coming into the US, sometimes suggesting that could be 20% - even 60% on imports from China.

Once in office, he introduced the idea of a "reciprocal" tariffs, suggesting the rates could vary country by country.

"Very simply, it's if they charge us, we charge them," he said in February, shortly before he ordered officials to develop such a plan.

The White House almost immediately complicated the picture, noting that their recommendations would reflect not just tariffs but also other policies they believe are unfair to American businesses, like sanitary rules and Value Added Tax (VAT).

It has a led to a scramble, as businesses and political leaders try to get a sense of how big a new tax their products might be facing; and how whatever is announced on Wednesday will interact with other duties, such as those on steel and aluminium, that Trump has already put into effect.

Officials in Europe, for example, are preparing for a double-digit tariff on their exports. Trump earlier this year indicated he could slap goods from the bloc with a 25% import tax.

Which countries could be affected?

The Trump administration has not confirmed which countries will be hit, although it has trailed Wednesday's announcement as a sweeping one.

On Sunday, the president said the new tariffs could apply to "all countries", suggesting a planned return to the across-the-board tariff he backed in the campaign.

It dashed hopes in some countries, such as the UK, that thought they might float under the radar, though many are still hoping eventually to work out some sort of deal.

But it is still unclear whether the tariffs will be universally applied or more targeted.

In television appearances over the last month, Trump advisers have hinted at a list of the "Dirty 15" - the 15% of countries that account for the bulk of trade with the US and impose steep tariffs on imports of American goods.

The Office of the US Trade Representative, as part of its recent review of unfair trade practices, listed countries in which it is "particularly interested".

They were Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, the UK and Vietnam.

Trump himself has reserved some of his harshest criticism for historic allies and major trade partners, such as Canada and the EU.

"Friend has been, oftentimes, much worse than foe," he declared last week.

What impact will the tariffs have?

Tariffs are taxes on imports. So the big question is, who will pay?

Technically, there is a simple answer: the US firms bringing in the goods are the companies that will face the bill, especially if the White House starts levying the tariffs "immediately", as spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt suggested on Tuesday.

But the larger the tariffs are, the more firms will be looking for ways to offset those costs, either by changing suppliers, pushing business partners to share the burden - or by raising prices for Americans.

Many firms have said they are already preparing for that step. But it is a risky game because if companies raise prices too much, buyers will simply stay away.

The dynamics have raised the risks of an economic recession both in the US - and far outside its borders, where many firms rely on American sales.

Trump says companies looking to avoid tariffs can simply do their business in the US, but that's not an immediate, or easy fix, given the high costs of hiring and setting up factories.

Introduce currency swings and retaliation by other countries into the mix, and the repercussions of Trump's bid to reset global trade balances are likely to prove hard to predict long after Wednesday's announcement.


Share this post
Comments

Be the first to know

Join our community and get notified about upcoming stories

Subscribing...
You've been subscribed!
Something went wrong
Messi makes MLS history winning second consecutive Golden Boot, playoffs set

Messi makes MLS history winning second consecutive Golden Boot, playoffs set

Inter Miami's Lionel Messi won his second consecutive MLS Golden Boot award on Saturday after the defending champions took second place in the Eastern Conference with a wasteful 3-3 draw against Charlotte on the final day of the regular season. The Argentine superstar did not score but set up the first two goals at Miami's Nu Stadium, both from corners, to help secure his club a home-field advantage for the first two playoff rounds. Messi's 26 goals this season were enough to make him the firs


O A

Erling Haaland gets his pee analysed: How smart urinals are used to monitor player performance

Erling Haaland gets his pee analysed: How smart urinals are used to monitor player performance

In the world of football, the biggest stars are constantly seeking a marginal edge on the training ground. Now, the hunt for these gains has reached the restroom. A new phenomenon is spreading through the training facilities of top European clubs. The so-called 'S-urinal' (where the 'S' stands for 'smart') is making inroads, equipped with touchscreens and sensors that analyse players' urine. Elite football clubs are frequently turning to 'smart urinals' to gain a competitive edge in sports scie


O A

Vance tries to build his own 2028 brand after midterm rout

Vance tries to build his own 2028 brand after midterm rout

Late in his blitz to salvage Republicans' midterm fortunes, Vice President JD Vance shifted strategy. He talked less about President Donald Trump and more about the issues that define his own political identity. Vance argued the case for Republicans, who lost control of Congress in Tuesday’s vote, almost exclusively through the lens of his policy portfolio, according to a Reuters review of half a dozen speeches since the ‌Republican convention in September. He bypassed Trump's signature polici


O A

Chris Rock Says Porn Addiction Destroyed His Marriage

Chris Rock Says Porn Addiction Destroyed His Marriage

Chris Rock revealed in a candid interview Tuesday that a past addiction to pornography played a significant role in the dissolution of his marriage and his subsequent decade-long hiatus from the director’s chair.  Speaking with GQ for its “Men of the Year” issue, the 61-year-old entertainer admitted he has been clean from the habit for approximately six years, a change he credits with helping him regain his personal and professional footing.  Rock, who recently directed the comedy-drama “Misty


O A